Why Donald Trump Secured a Major Step in the Middle East But Struggles Regarding Vladimir Putin Over Ukraine

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Trump and Putin's planned talks on the almost lengthy conflict in the region have been postponed indefinitely.

Reports of an impending American-Russian presidential meeting have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.

Only a few days after President Trump said he planned to confer with Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.

A preliminary meeting by the both countries' top diplomats has been cancelled, too.

"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump informed the press at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a waste of time, so I'll see what transpires."
  • Trump states he did not want a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin postponed
  • Letdown in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky departs Washington empty-handed

The on-again, off-again summit is just the latest development in the president's efforts to mediate an end to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a subject of increased attention for the American leader after he arranged a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal in the Palestinian territory.

During a speech in the North African country recently to commemorate that truce deal, the president turned to Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.

"It is essential to get the Russian situation resolved," he said.

However, the conditions that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for the negotiation team may be challenging to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for almost several years.

Less Leverage

According to the lead negotiator, the key to unlocking a deal was the Israeli government's decision to attack Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a action that angered US partners in the Arab world but gave Trump bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

Trump gained from a long record of supporting Israel dating back to his initial presidency, including his decision to relocate the American embassy to the contested city, to alter America's position on the legality of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, more recently, his support for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.

The US president, actually, is more popular among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a situation that gave him special sway over the Israeli leader.

Combine Trump's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to force an agreement.

In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, the president has much less influence. In recent months, he has vacillated between attempts to pressure Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.

Trump has warned to enact additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to supply the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that such actions could harm the world's financial stability and intensify the war.

At the same time, the US leader has criticized openly Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and suspending weapon deliveries to the country - only to then back off in the wake of concerned European allies who warn a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the entire region.

Trump often boasts about his skill to meet and hammer out agreements, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to move the hostilities any nearer a peaceful end.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Trump and Vladimir Putin's meeting in the summer produced little tangible outcome.

The Russian president may in fact be using Trump's desire for a deal – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a means of influencing him.

In July, Putin agreed to a high-level meeting in the US state at the time when it seemed probable that Trump would sign off on legislative penalties backed by GOP senators. That bill was afterwards put on hold.

Recently, as reports spread that the US administration was seriously contemplating sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the Russian leader phoned the US president who then promoted the possible meeting in Hungary.

The next day, Trump hosted Ukraine's leader at the White House, but departed without agreements after a allegedly tense meeting.

The US leader insisted that he was not being manipulated by Putin.

"You know, I've been played all my life by skilled operators, and I came out successfully," he said.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

But the Ukrainian leader subsequently commented on the sequence of events.

"As soon as the issue of long-range mobility became a little further away for us – for our nation – the Russian side almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he said.

So, in a matter of days, the president has shifted from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to planning a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and confidentially urging the Ukrainian president to surrender the entire Donbas region – even land Russian forces has been unable to conquer.

He has ultimately decided on advocating a ceasefire along current battle lines – something Russia has rejected.

On the campaign trail last year, Trump vowed that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has since discarded that commitment, saying that concluding the war is proving more difficult than he anticipated.

It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his authority – and the challenge of finding a peace plan when both parties desires, or can afford to, give up the fight.

James Hernandez
James Hernandez

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