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Voting has commenced for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, although analysts believe the party stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and formed a four-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is projected to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

However, PVV's popularity has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer amid a dispute concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a election period dominated by issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the vote yields a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 could enter parliament.

This significant division means that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – often including four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of power. But, critics and analysts argue that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is uncertain and coalition talks could take several months, analysts suggest that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is anticipated soon after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.