Are You Not Being Entertained? This Fall of the Goal Scoring
One of the biggest stories of the EPL season so far is the decline of scoring in open play and the way sides are finding goals increasingly from set-plays instead.
Looking at goal sources to the first 11 games the prior season, we see 39 fewer scored in open play and an increase of 26 from team set-pieces and spot-kicks, giving us 13 less altogether.
If we look at the bigger picture, efforts on goal teams are taking reveal a remarkable 370 fewer in open play than this time last time out.
Regardless of the big increase in dead-ball scores, there have actually been a mere two extra attempts produced from these situations excluding spot-kicks, demonstrating the proficiency teams have been at discovering methods to convert from set-pieces.
Scoring Rates Reveal a Story
Over 300 goals scored in 110 games to date calculates at 2.74 goals per fixture, which if it continued for all 38 games might be the smallest for half a decade, from five seasons ago (2.69 per game).
But just 196 goals coming in open play equates to 1.78 per game and is on course to be the smallest for 16 years, back in 2009-10 (1.76 per game).
The 2009-10 season also marks the only Premier League season to experience scoring at a higher rate from set-plays excluding penalties than this season's rate of 0.77 each match (0.79 average).
What Clubs Account for This Change?
Regarding goals scored from open play, Wolves have experienced the largest decrease, netting a mere four in 11 matches, 10 less than at this stage the previous campaign.
Outside of Wolves, England's top division's drop in goals from open play is largely a London phenomenon, with five of the city's seven teams scoring five or more less scores from open-play than last season.
In fairness, this is mainly because their scoring numerous scores at the early stages of the previous campaign as opposed to them really struggling to convert in open play the current term.
At the same time Manchester City have recorded the most significant jump, with almost every one of their 23 scores so far originating in open-play.
Set-Piece Success
We've compared newly promoted sides with those that were relegated they took the place of. Sunderland the Black Cats have netted three extra scores in open-play than the Saints managed in their opening 11 matches en route to the drop last season.
In terms of scoring from dead-ball situations (not counting penalties), the Gunners and Chelsea have experienced the largest rise, with each team compensating for the reduction of five goals that they've scored in open play with the same number from dead-ball situations.
Manchester United have recorded double the number scores from set-pieces as they achieved in the 11 games last season prior to Ruben Amorim took charge, while Sunderland again are more effective at netting than the fellow red-and-whites they superseded.
City appear not to have received the memo about scoring more from set-pieces, since they've scored three fewer than the previous campaign, similar to Forest, even if this may result from the tactical shift they're working to install.
Overall Patterns
Six sides – the Gunners, the Blues, Fulham, Newcastle, Spurs and West Ham – are this season's leading trend-followers by netting less goals from open-play and additional from set-plays, while City are the unique club to defy the pattern so far by achieving the complete reverse.
It remains to be seen to see if teams continue to depend greatly on set-plays as matches continue or if they rediscover their overall inventiveness and start scoring increased totals in open play as well.